Meta Description: What growth do the World Bank and IMF forecast for South Africa in 2026? The World Bank says 1.0% and the IMF 1.4%, both before the Q2 contraction. See the numbers.
Last updated: 8 October 2026
Short Answer
The World Bank, on 11 June 2026, forecast South Africa’s 2026 growth at 1.0%, cut from 1.4%, with 1.5% for 2027 and 1.7% for 2028. The IMF’s Article IV report in February projected 1.4% for 2026. Both predate the 0.2% GDP contraction in the second quarter, released on 8 September.
Key Takeaways
- World Bank (11 June 2026): 1.0% growth in 2026, 1.5% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028, with the 2026 figure cut from 1.4%.
- IMF Article IV (February 2026): 1.4% growth for 2026, as background.
- The IMF release date is reported as 10 or 11 February, a small conflict in the sources.
- Neither forecast reflects the second-quarter GDP contraction of 0.2%.
What These Forecasts Are
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund are multilateral institutions that publish economic projections for member countries. They use models, official data and assumptions about policy and the global economy. A forecast is an estimate made at a point in time. When conditions change, as they did with the second-quarter GDP data, forecasters often revise their numbers.
The Forecasts in Detail
World Bank: 1.0% for 2026
On 11 June 2026 the World Bank put 2026 growth at 1.0%, a cut from 1.4%. It projected 1.5% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028. The pattern is a slow improvement over three years rather than a sharp recovery. The sources reviewed do not give the Bank’s stated reasons for the cut, so none are attributed here.
IMF: 1.4% for 2026
The IMF’s Article IV consultation, published in February 2026, projected 1.4% growth for 2026. An Article IV report is the Fund’s regular assessment of a member country’s economy. The release date appears as 10 February in some coverage and 11 February in others, and this article cannot resolve that.
Why the Numbers Differ
The IMF figure of 1.4% and the World Bank’s 1.0% differ by 0.4 percentage points, but they were made four months apart. The World Bank’s earlier forecast was also 1.4%, so the two institutions were aligned before the Bank cut its number. That the Bank cut in June suggests it saw weaker prospects by then, though the sources do not give the details.
What Has Happened Since
After the June forecast, Statistics South Africa reported a 0.2% fall in GDP for the second quarter. Unemployment rose to 33.6%, and the Reserve Bank raised its repo rate to 7.25% in September. Each of these developments is covered in a separate article in this series. Together they lean toward weaker conditions than the forecasts assumed, but the sources do not include a revised forecast, so this article does not estimate one.
How Quarterly Data Feeds Annual Forecasts
Annual growth is built from four quarters. A weak quarter lowers the starting point for the rest of the year, so to reach a given annual number the remaining quarters must grow faster. Given the Q2 contraction, hitting 1.0% for the year would require stronger growth in the second half, though the sources do not provide a calculation, and the Q1 figure is reported as both 0.4% and 0.5%.
Why Forecasts Matter
- The Treasury uses growth assumptions to project revenue and debt.
- Businesses use them to plan investment and hiring.
- Rating agencies and investors read them as signals of the outlook.
Forecasts are not guarantees, and the confidence range around them can be wide.
Competing Views
Optimists point to reform progress in electricity and logistics, which could lift growth later. Pessimists point to weak investment, rising unemployment and higher borrowing costs. The evidence in this article does not decide between them.
How to Read a Forecast Cut
A cut from 1.4% to 1.0% is a reduction of 0.4 percentage points, which is about 29% of the earlier forecast. In absolute terms the economy is still expected to grow, only more slowly. For a country with 33.6% unemployment, even the earlier number was low relative to what economists say is needed to reduce joblessness, a point commonly made in public debate and not tested by the sources here. Growth of 1.0% to 1.7% across the forecast period would not by itself change that picture quickly.
Differences Between Institutions
The IMF and World Bank use different models and data cut-off dates. The IMF Article IV report is the product of a consultation with the government, while the World Bank outlook is part of its regular regional and country updates. They also differ in their emphasis, with the IMF focusing on macroeconomic and financial stability and the World Bank on development and poverty. For the reader, the important point is to compare forecasts made on similar dates and to read the underlying documents.
Factors That Could Move the Forecast
- Electricity supply: other reporting in this series notes a long run without load shedding, which supports activity.
- Logistics: delays in freight reforms can restrain exports.
- Global demand and commodity prices.
- Domestic demand, shaped by interest rates and household income.
These are widely discussed factors. The sources do not weigh them against each other.
What We Still Do Not Know
- Updated World Bank or IMF forecasts after the second-quarter data.
- The assumptions behind each institution’s numbers.
- The IMF’s exact release date.
How to Verify the Forecasts
- Open the World Bank country page for South Africa and find the outlook published in June 2026.
- Open the IMF country page and find the 2026 Article IV report, noting the stated publication date.
- Check whether a figure is a calendar-year or fiscal-year forecast.
- Look for any later update before quoting a figure.
What to Watch Next
Watch for the IMF’s autumn outlook update, the Treasury’s Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement and the third-quarter GDP release.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the World Bank forecast for South Africa in 2026?
1.0% growth, cut from 1.4%, as of 11 June 2026.
What does the IMF forecast?
1.4% for 2026, per the February Article IV report.
What about 2027 and 2028?
The World Bank projects 1.5% and 1.7%.
Do these include the Q2 contraction?
No, both were published earlier.
Will the forecasts be revised?
Possibly, as new data arrives, but no revision was in the sources reviewed.
Sources
- World Bank: South Africa economic outlook (11 June 2026)
- IMF: South Africa Article IV consultation (February 2026)
- Statistics South Africa: GDP, second quarter 2026 (8 September 2026)
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