Meta Description: Who is leading the polls in South Africa’s metros before the 2026 local elections? An Ipsos snapshot shows MK ahead in eThekwini and the DA in Cape Town. See the caveats.
Last updated: 8 October 2026
Short Answer
An Ipsos poll snapshot reviewed for this article shows the MK Party at 55% in eThekwini and the DA at 46% in Cape Town, with the ANC and DA close in other metros. The article reporting it was undated, so the fieldwork date is unknown. Treat the numbers as a snapshot, not a forecast.
Key Takeaways
- Ipsos snapshot: MK 55% in eThekwini and DA 46% in Cape Town.
- The ANC and DA were reported as close in other metros.
- The article carrying the poll was undated, so its age is uncertain.
- Polls measure stated intentions among respondents, not results, and turnout can change outcomes.
What the Poll Reported
The material reviewed for this article includes a summary of Ipsos polling for the 2026 municipal elections. It reports the MK Party at 55% in eThekwini and the Democratic Alliance at 46% in Cape Town. For other metros, the summary says the ANC and DA were close to each other rather than giving a single leader.
That is the extent of what was verified. The full tables, including margins of error, sample sizes and the share of undecided respondents, were not part of the material, so this article does not report them.
Reading a Metro Poll Properly
Check the date
The article with these figures was undated. A poll taken before the candidate lists were certified or before campaign events could look quite different from one taken in October. Without a fieldwork date, the numbers are best read as an indication of relative strength, not a reading of the current race.
Look for the sample
Metro polls rely on samples within a single city. If the sample is small, the margin of error is large, and a lead of a few points may not mean much. A 55% reading in one metro looks decisive, but without the sample size it cannot be assessed.
Separate vote share from seats
Municipal councils combine ward seats with proportional seats, so a party’s share of the vote does not translate directly into control. Other articles in this series note that no-confidence motions and coalition deals have determined who governs in the past.
Remember turnout
Polls often include registered voters who say they intend to vote, but actual turnout can be lower, and which groups stay home shapes the result.
What the Snapshot Does and Does Not Say
- It does suggest that eThekwini is a contest where the MK Party was strong at the time.
- It does suggest that the DA was the strongest party in Cape Town at the time.
- It does not say who would form a council or mayor.
- It does not name the ANC’s figure in any metro, because the material reviewed did not include it.
Why Polls Appear in Election Coverage
Polls give voters and parties a rough sense of where races are close. They also influence media attention, donor interest and, some argue, voter behaviour, although the evidence on that is mixed and not covered here. Voters should use them as one input alongside manifestos and track records.
Where Polls Have Limits in South Africa
Local elections in South Africa have historically produced results that differ from surveys for several reasons that analysts discuss: low-turnout municipalities, ward-level dynamics, and independents. This article does not quantify those past errors because no figures were verified, but it is a reason for caution.
Why eThekwini and Cape Town Stand Out
The two numbers in the snapshot show different kinds of strength. A 55% share in eThekwini suggests a party with majority support in that sample. A 46% share in Cape Town suggests a leading party that may still need partners if it falls short of half the seats. Which case applies depends on the real vote and the seat allocation, so a plurality in a poll is not the same as a majority on the council.
The snapshot also implies that the contest is not uniform across the country. Different metros have different dominant parties, which is why national vote shares from earlier elections are a poor guide to local results.
A Short Guide to Poll Terms
- Margin of error: the range within which the true value probably lies. A lead smaller than this range is not a clear lead.
- Undecided: respondents who have not chosen a party. Their eventual choice can change the result.
- Likely voter model: an adjustment pollsters make to account for who will actually vote.
- Snapshot: a measure of opinion at one time, not a prediction.
What We Still Do Not Know
- The fieldwork dates of the Ipsos poll.
- Sample sizes and margins of error by metro.
- Figures for Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City and Mangaung.
How to Compare Different Polls
If several polls appear before election day, compare them on method before comparing results. Ask whether they sampled registered voters or all adults, whether interviews were by phone, online or face to face, and whether results are reported for each metro or only nationally. Two polls can disagree because their methods differ, not because opinion moved. A trend across several polls with similar methods is more informative than a single dramatic number.
It is also useful to compare polls with the last election’s actual result in the same metro. A large gap between past results and current polling can mean real change, or it can mean the poll is a poor fit for the electorate. This article did not have the 2021 metro-level results to hand, so it does not make that comparison.
What to Watch Next
Watch for new polls with published methodology before election day on 4 November, and for the official results declared by the IEC after the vote. Those results are the only measure that counts.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which party leads in eThekwini?
An Ipsos snapshot reported the MK Party at 55%.
Which party leads in Cape Town?
The same snapshot reported the DA at 46%.
Are these polls recent?
The article was undated, so the fieldwork date is unknown.
Do polls predict who becomes mayor?
No. Mayors are chosen by councils after the election.
Where do official results come from?
The Electoral Commission of South Africa declares results.
Sources
- Ipsos: South Africa municipal election polling summary (undated)
- Electoral Commission of South Africa: official election information
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